World Trade Down 1.2% in May

Manila—(PHStocks)—In May 2015, global trade was down by 1.2% month-on-month, following a 0.2% decrease in April. World industrial production, meanwhile, slipped by 0.2% following a 0.1% increase in April. This, according to preliminary reports by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

The decline in the volume of world trade was widespread, with both import and export volumes decreasing in most regions and countries, both advanced and emerging. Import and export growth turned heavily negative in Japan. Among emerging economies, Central and Eastern Europe was one of the worst performers.

Because of the volatility of monthly trade figures, momentum is the preferred measure of trade growth. Trade momentum was -1.3% in May (non-annualised), down from -1.2% in April, and the lowest reading since May 2009. Import and export momentum were close to zero in advanced economies, while both numbers were below minus 2% in emerging economies.

Regarding industrial production, the CPB noted that production in advanced economies contracted for a fourth month in a row, whereas in emerging economies, growth was steady at roughly half its long-term average rate. Global production momentum was zero in May, down from 0.2% in April. Momentum remained positive in emerging economies, but turned negative in advanced economies. The overall decline originated mainly in Japan and the Euro Area.

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